[Luận văn tiến sĩ - ĐH Vũ Hán] Multi reanalysis data-driven SWAT model building and its application in hydrology response to climate change in Cau river basin of northern Vietnam

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ABSTRACT
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013) the global 
average surface temperature warmed by 0.85°C from 1880 to the 2012 year, causing changes 
in precipitation and considerably impacting hydrological processes. Variations in temperature 
and precipitation were found influential affect water yield, Evapotranspiration (ET), surface 
runoff,  the  magnitude,  and  frequency  of  floods  in  the  river  basins.  Therefore  hydrological 
models are developed to capture current hydrological processes as well as the associated effects 
of climate change on the water resources is extremely important for prevention and mitigation 
actions to be taken. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed model, was 
developed  to  analyze  the  impacts  of  land  use  and  climate  changes  on  discharge,  erosion, 
sedimentation, and water quality in gauged and ungauged watersheds (Arnold et al., 1998). 
SWAT  has  received  international  acceptance  as  a  robust  interdisciplinary  catchment-scale 
modeling tool because user-friendly nature, broad application capability, and the fact that is 
well-evaluated, well-promoted, and well-supported.
Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) indicate that 
Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change with the  air temperature will 
increase by approximately 1,3 to 4°C by end of the 21st century.  Under these circumstances, 
water sources in rivers including the Cau river basin (CRB), a large river in northern Vietnam 
may be adversely affected. Surprisingly, this area has only been recognized for studies in the 
direction  of  assessing  the  current  state  of  surface  water  quality.  Therefore,  a  thorough 
understanding  of  the  current  status  and  changing  trends  of  hydrological  processes  under 
changing  climate  conditions  in  the  CRB  for  developing  sustainable  water  resources 
management in the state.
Investigating  the  possibility  of  CFSR  and  CMADS  data  in  hydrometeorological 
studies in the Cau river basin, Northern Vietnam
In  Chapter Three, the potential application of two GCPs, the China Meteorological 
Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model (CMADS) and Climate Forecast System 
Reanalysis  (NECP-CFSR),  are  compared  for  the  first  time  with  data  from  ground-based 
meteorological stations over the CRB, northern Vietnam. These products are used because they 
have higher spatial resolutions than other products and are openly available for the study areas, 
covering both temperature and precipitation, and can be used immediately in flow simulations. 
This is a major advantage of CFSR and CMADS over satellite precipitation data that often lack 
associated temperature data and heterogeneous time scales.
Major input data for SWAT include DEM, LULC, soil properties, and daily weather 
data  (includes  grid  points  and  ground  measurement  stations  located  around  or  covering  the 
catchment area). The period for collection and processing from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 
2013 to ensure consistency in the evaluation and comparison of the performances of the input 
data.  The  2012  ArcSWAT  version,  an  interface  in  ArcGIS  used  to  perform  simulations
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