[Luận văn tiến sĩ - ĐH Vũ Hán] Multi reanalysis data-driven SWAT model building and its application in hydrology response to climate change in Cau river basin of northern Vietnam
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ABSTRACT
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013) the global
average surface temperature warmed by 0.85°C from 1880 to the 2012 year, causing changes
in precipitation and considerably impacting hydrological processes. Variations in temperature
and precipitation were found influential affect water yield, Evapotranspiration (ET), surface
runoff, the magnitude, and frequency of floods in the river basins. Therefore hydrological
models are developed to capture current hydrological processes as well as the associated effects
of climate change on the water resources is extremely important for prevention and mitigation
actions to be taken. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed model, was
developed to analyze the impacts of land use and climate changes on discharge, erosion,
sedimentation, and water quality in gauged and ungauged watersheds (Arnold et al., 1998).
SWAT has received international acceptance as a robust interdisciplinary catchment-scale
modeling tool because user-friendly nature, broad application capability, and the fact that is
well-evaluated, well-promoted, and well-supported.
Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) indicate that
Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change with the air temperature will
increase by approximately 1,3 to 4°C by end of the 21st century. Under these circumstances,
water sources in rivers including the Cau river basin (CRB), a large river in northern Vietnam
may be adversely affected. Surprisingly, this area has only been recognized for studies in the
direction of assessing the current state of surface water quality. Therefore, a thorough
understanding of the current status and changing trends of hydrological processes under
changing climate conditions in the CRB for developing sustainable water resources
management in the state.
Investigating the possibility of CFSR and CMADS data in hydrometeorological
studies in the Cau river basin, Northern Vietnam
In Chapter Three, the potential application of two GCPs, the China Meteorological
Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model (CMADS) and Climate Forecast System
Reanalysis (NECP-CFSR), are compared for the first time with data from ground-based
meteorological stations over the CRB, northern Vietnam. These products are used because they
have higher spatial resolutions than other products and are openly available for the study areas,
covering both temperature and precipitation, and can be used immediately in flow simulations.
This is a major advantage of CFSR and CMADS over satellite precipitation data that often lack
associated temperature data and heterogeneous time scales.
Major input data for SWAT include DEM, LULC, soil properties, and daily weather
data (includes grid points and ground measurement stations located around or covering the
catchment area). The period for collection and processing from 1 January 2008 to 31 December
2013 to ensure consistency in the evaluation and comparison of the performances of the input
data. The 2012 ArcSWAT version, an interface in ArcGIS used to perform simulations
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